?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
1w Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 30 games
63%
Techies
Techies
rue · 25 games
48%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 21 game
52%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 20 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 18 games
39%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 16 games
44%

1w Team

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
RESPECT · 28 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
46%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Chira JUNIOR · 26 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
Munkushi~ · 22 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
RESPECT · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marssignature
Cloud · 20 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
53%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Cloud · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
462 picks · 202 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
418 picks · 575 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
403 picks · 747 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
389 picks · 552 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
387 picks · 154 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 688 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
337 picks · 555 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
325 picks · 1064 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 39%
Hero pool strength54% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:34
Yellow Submarine 43%1w Team 57%
The model gave 57% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 36:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSatanic
46% · 190 games46% · 179 games
LunaMunkushi~
Luna
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lighterase
56% · 172 games43% · 249 games
MarsCloud
Mars
Doom
Doomemptiness
51% · 208 games51% · 265 games
TinyChira JUNIOR
Tiny
Techies
Techiesrue
52% · 302 games53% · 225 games
Skywrath Mageswedenstrong
Skywrath Mage
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
50% · 256 games53% · 210 games
GyrocopterRESPECT
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction correct13:24
Yellow Submarine 46%1w Team 54%
The model gave 54% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 29:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerSatanic
41% · 40 games50% · 169 games
LunaMunkushi~
Luna
Pangolier
Pangoliererase
52% · 351 game51% · 49 games
LycanCloud
Lycan
Enigma
Enigmaemptiness
67% · 107 games49% · 223 games
Primal BeastChira JUNIOR
Primal Beast
Tusk
Tuskasdekor_r
45% · 103 games39% · 70 games
Baneswedenstrong
Bane
Tiny
Tinyrue
51% · 249 games49% · 339 games
RubickRESPECT
Rubick
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 59%
Series result1w Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2