European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rest Farmerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 30 games
Techies
rue · 25 games
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 21 game
Luna
Satanic · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 20 games
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 17 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 16 games
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
461 picks · 202 bans
Tiny
418 picks · 574 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 746 bans
Centaur Warrunner
391 picks · 553 bans
Rubick
389 picks · 154 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 689 bans
Mars
337 picks · 557 bans
Dragon Knight
327 picks · 1062 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:30
Yellow Submarine 58%Rest Farmers 42%
The model gave 58% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Rest Farmers in 32:56.
Game 2prediction missed
Yellow Submarine 58%Rest Farmers 42%
The model gave 58% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Rest Farmers.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 58%
Series resultRest Farmers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2