?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO5
result vs prediction
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:3
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:3
Team Falconswin 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BETBOOM TEAM

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 25 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gpK~ · 20 games
70%
Lion
Lion
Save- · 20 games
55%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 20 games
65%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 19 games
74%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 17 games
65%
Techies
Techiessignature
Save- · 16 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Save- · 16 games
75%

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 45 games
82%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 37 games
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 36 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 35 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 33 games
79%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 32 games
81%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 30 games
77%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 27 games
59%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
469 picks · 201 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 587 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
432 picks · 780 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
419 picks · 612 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
408 picks · 168 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 718 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 588 bans
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
349 picks · 1093 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 63%
Hero pool strength57% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total67% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:18
BETBOOM TEAM 36%Team Falcons 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 46:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerNightfall
44% · 58 games49% · 92 games
RazorMalr1ne
Razor
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightgpK~
38% · 103 games61% · 73 games
WeaverSkiter
Weaver
Visage
VisageMieRo
39% · 17 games62% · 92 games
UnderlordATF
Underlord
Enchantress
EnchantressTORONTOTOKYO
44% · 130 games55% · 125 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Tiny
TinySave-
53% · 138 games51% · 64 games
VenomancerSneyking
Venomancer
Game 2prediction correct28:27
BETBOOM TEAM 38%Team Falcons 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 51:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
51% · 177 games50% · 146 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightgpK~
42% · 171 game47% · 278 games
DoomATF
Doom
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMieRo
56% · 281 game56% · 201 game
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Muerta
MuertaSave-
39% · 56 games53% · 107 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTORONTOTOKYO
51% · 181 game52% · 134 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Game 3prediction correct7:29
BETBOOM TEAM 40%Team Falcons 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 40:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNightfall
51% · 189 games44% · 193 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Zeus
ZeusgpK~
49% · 98 games53% · 195 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Kunkka
KunkkaMieRo
49% · 219 games49% · 231 game
MarsATF
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSave-
55% · 233 games53% · 178 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTORONTOTOKYO
50% · 191 game48% · 133 games
Dark WillowCr1t-
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 67%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3