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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 43 games
79%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 36 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 28 games
71%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 25 games
84%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 23 games
78%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 22 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 20 games
65%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 20 games
75%

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 45 games
82%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 37 games
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 36 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 35 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 33 games
79%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 31 game
81%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 29 games
76%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 27 games
81%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
469 picks · 201 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 592 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
435 picks · 787 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
426 picks · 619 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
411 picks · 168 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
377 picks · 722 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
367 picks · 593 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
355 picks · 268 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total73% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:27
Tundra Esports 38%Team Falcons 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 49:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaPure~
48% · 243 games54% · 168 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Sniper
SniperTopson
56% · 48 games50% · 190 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Kunkka
KunkkaTobi
48% · 211 games52% · 212 games
Primal BeastMalr1ne
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
Hoodwink9Class
42% · 150 games62% · 115 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritWhitemon
39% · 229 games53% · 196 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct20:40
Tundra Esports 39%Team Falcons 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 57:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaPure~
55% · 244 games50% · 130 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Clinkz
ClinkzTopson
42% · 76 games49% · 68 games
Anti-MageATF
Anti-Mage
Kunkka
KunkkaTobi
46% · 155 games55% · 191 game
DoomMalr1ne
Doom
Elder Titan
Elder TitanWhitemon
48% · 82 games51% · 138 games
WindrangerCr1t-
Windranger
Hoodwink
Hoodwink9Class
49% · 133 games52% · 163 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 73%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2