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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 44 games
82%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 37 games
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 36 games
72%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 32 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
78%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 31 game
81%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 27 games
78%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
77%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 31 game
58%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 27 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 25 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 22 games
64%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 20 games
55%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 18 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
471 picks · 204 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
442 picks · 595 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 797 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
430 picks · 630 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
414 picks · 170 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
379 picks · 726 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 600 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
360 picks · 276 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 43%
Hero pool strength61% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total80% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:17
Team Falcons 67%OG 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 48:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkiter
60% · 156 games47% · 185 games
Templar Assassinbzm
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
49% · 388 games47% · 105 games
Monkey KingTimado
Monkey King
Kunkka
KunkkaATF
49% · 205 games50% · 238 games
MarsWisper
Mars
Venomancer
VenomancerSneyking
60% · 72 games45% · 302 games
RubickAri
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
43% · 159 games52% · 150 games
MiranaCeb
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed26:33
Team Falcons 70%OG 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by OG in 47:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomATF
54% · 216 games52% · 34 games
Chaos KnightTimado
Chaos Knight
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
49% · 86 games39% · 62 games
Earth Spiritbzm
Earth Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMalr1ne
61% · 72 games50% · 144 games
MagnusWisper
Magnus
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
39% · 126 games56% · 149 games
Shadow DemonCeb
Shadow Demon
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSneyking
50% · 53 games46% · 164 games
TinyAri
Tiny
Game 3prediction correct36:17
Team Falcons 68%OG 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 49:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
48% · 197 games49% · 161 game
MedusaTimado
Medusa
Doom
DoomMalr1ne
53% · 317 games51% · 156 games
Miranabzm
Mirana
Venomancer
VenomancerSneyking
52% · 72 games47% · 181 game
MagnusWisper
Magnus
Mars
MarsATF
50% · 237 games59% · 223 games
Shadow DemonCeb
Shadow Demon
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
40% · 156 games52% · 258 games
TinyAri
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 80%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3