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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Liquidloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 42 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 37 games
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 33 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
78%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 31 game
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 27 games
78%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
77%

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 31 game
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 25 games
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 24 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 22 games
59%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 20 games
65%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 20 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 19 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
476 picks · 204 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
449 picks · 802 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 595 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
438 picks · 643 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
419 picks · 174 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
387 picks · 733 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
378 picks · 612 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
371 picks · 285 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 42%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total70% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:26
Team Falcons 64%Team Liquid 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarMalr1ne
59% · 19 games50% · 181 game
LunamiCKe
Luna
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
51% · 159 games49% · 131 game
Keeper of the LightNisha
Keeper of the Light
Mars
MarsATF
53% · 196 games50% · 189 games
Kunkka33
Kunkka
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
51% · 120 games44% · 61 game
IoBoxi
Io
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSneyking
46% · 191 game52% · 123 games
DisruptoriNSaNiA
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct29:15
Team Falcons 62%Team Liquid 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 56:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSkiter
46% · 47 games49% · 97 games
Templar AssassinmiCKe
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
49% · 164 games51% · 86 games
KunkkaNisha
Kunkka
Viper
ViperATF
39% · 25 games48% · 38 games
Enigma33
Enigma
Oracle
OracleSneyking
51% · 54 games51% · 115 games
TinyBoxi
Tiny
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCr1t-
54% · 74 games55% · 28 games
BaneiNSaNiA
Bane
Game 3prediction correct43:10
Team Falcons 66%Team Liquid 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 36:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsATF
53% · 228 games48% · 195 games
LunamiCKe
Luna
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
51% · 170 games47% · 149 games
Keeper of the LightNisha
Keeper of the Light
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
54% · 100 games48% · 198 games
Kunkka33
Kunkka
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
61% · 137 games53% · 125 games
ClockwerkiNSaNiA
Clockwerk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
47% · 215 games37% · 183 games
Vengeful SpiritBoxi
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 70%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3