ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:2
G2 Invictus Gamingwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 23 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 19 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 18 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 17 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 16 games
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 16 games
Snipersignature
Xm · 14 games
Batridersignature
Dy · 13 games
G2 Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
473 picks · 204 bans
Tiny
450 picks · 595 bans
Batrider
449 picks · 806 bans
Centaur Warrunner
440 picks · 643 bans
Rubick
421 picks · 174 bans
Pangolier
386 picks · 734 bans
Mars
378 picks · 613 bans
Techies
372 picks · 287 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:34
Xtreme Gaming 78%G2 Invictus Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:18:50.
Game 2prediction missed8:40
Xtreme Gaming 78%G2 Invictus Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by G2 Invictus Gaming in 50:07.
Game 3prediction missed9:25
Xtreme Gaming 78%G2 Invictus Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by G2 Invictus Gaming in 43:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 78%
Series resultG2 Invictus Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3