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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 31 game
58%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 26 games
62%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 23 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 22 games
64%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 20 games
55%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 18 games
50%

BETBOOM TEAM

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Save- · 19 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 19 games
74%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gpK~ · 18 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 18 games
61%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 17 games
65%
Techies
Techiessignature
Save- · 16 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Save- · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
474 picks · 205 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
456 picks · 596 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 831 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
448 picks · 659 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
426 picks · 177 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
395 picks · 740 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 620 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
383 picks · 292 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total65% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:26
OG 44%BETBOOM TEAM 56%
The model gave 56% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 35:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTimado
50% · 160 games52% · 114 games
GyrocopterNightfall
Gyrocopter
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbzm
48% · 183 games49% · 114 games
BeastmasterMieRo
Beastmaster
Underlord
UnderlordWisper
42% · 131 game48% · 121 game
Keeper of the LightgpK~
Keeper of the Light
Marci
MarciAri
40% · 48 games49% · 193 games
RubickSave-
Rubick
Bane
BaneCeb
63% · 67 games64% · 47 games
Elder TitanTORONTOTOKYO
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed19:23
OG 44%BETBOOM TEAM 56%
The model gave 56% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by OG in 48:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordTimado
41% · 85 games51% · 281 game
Faceless VoidNightfall
Faceless Void
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
53% · 317 games55% · 245 games
Keeper of the LightgpK~
Keeper of the Light
Rubick
RubickAri
43% · 357 games50% · 167 games
LifestealerMieRo
Lifestealer
Mars
MarsWisper
45% · 261 game54% · 439 games
BatriderSave-
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCeb
46% · 253 games61% · 141 game
Elder TitanTORONTOTOKYO
Elder Titan
Game 3prediction correct26:34
OG 39%BETBOOM TEAM 61%
The model gave 61% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 53:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
Sniperbzm
53% · 42 games57% · 137 games
LifestealerNightfall
Lifestealer
Kunkka
KunkkaTimado
42% · 185 games49% · 133 games
Dragon KnightgpK~
Dragon Knight
Razor
RazorWisper
47% · 165 games61% · 52 games
EnigmaMieRo
Enigma
Phoenix
PhoenixCeb
50% · 159 games45% · 150 games
GyrocopterTORONTOTOKYO
Gyrocopter
Bane
BaneAri
48% · 69 games54% · 148 games
TinySave-
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 65%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3