?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 42 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 37 games
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 33 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
78%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
66%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 27 games
78%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
80%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 43 games
79%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 34 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 28 games
71%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 23 games
87%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 22 games
82%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 20 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 19 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
474 picks · 205 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
457 picks · 596 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 831 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
448 picks · 658 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
425 picks · 178 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
396 picks · 737 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 618 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
383 picks · 292 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:36
Team Falcons 62%Tundra Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 42:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautSkiter
52% · 56 games48% · 191 game
LunaPure~
Luna
Brewmaster
BrewmasterATF
50% · 146 games50% · 66 games
ClinkzTopson
Clinkz
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
45% · 191 game50% · 161 game
KunkkaTobi
Kunkka
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
53% · 212 games54% · 197 games
Shadow Demon9Class
Shadow Demon
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
42% · 131 game56% · 121 game
DisruptorWhitemon
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct39:18
Team Falcons 65%Tundra Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorATF
51% · 155 games47% · 216 games
MorphlingPure~
Morphling
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalr1ne
49% · 297 games43% · 81 game
ZeusTopson
Zeus
Sven
SvenSkiter
54% · 198 games48% · 184 games
KunkkaTobi
Kunkka
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
51% · 142 games52% · 365 games
Rubick9Class
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorSneyking
56% · 173 games48% · 119 games
ClockwerkWhitemon
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed16:28
Team Falcons 64%Tundra Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
56% · 175 games51% · 218 games
MorphlingPure~
Morphling
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalr1ne
49% · 189 games44% · 75 games
ZeusTopson
Zeus
Razor
RazorATF
48% · 133 games49% · 184 games
KunkkaTobi
Kunkka
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
50% · 194 games49% · 109 games
Hoodwink9Class
Hoodwink
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCr1t-
45% · 64 games56% · 169 games
DisruptorWhitemon
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 74%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3