?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO1
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 0:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 32 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 20 games
65%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 19 games
63%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 17 games
41%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 16 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 14 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
KJ · 13 games
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
KJ · 13 games
77%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 42 games
79%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 34 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 28 games
71%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 23 games
87%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 22 games
82%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 20 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 19 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 18 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
474 picks · 205 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
457 picks · 596 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 831 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 659 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
425 picks · 178 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
396 picks · 736 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 619 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
382 picks · 294 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 51%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:39
Heroic 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 46:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshrac4nalog
56% · 96 games57% · 61 game
Troll WarlordPure~
Troll Warlord
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidK1
58% · 148 games49% · 130 games
KunkkaTobi
Kunkka
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
49% · 89 games35% · 58 games
ZeusTopson
Zeus
Clockwerk
ClockwerkScofield
51% · 120 games41% · 247 games
Techies9Class
Techies
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKJ
51% · 124 games51% · 81 game
Elder TitanWhitemon
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 74%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1