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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO1
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 1:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Spiritloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 23 games
78%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 19 games
74%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 18 games
61%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 16 games
69%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
44%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 16 games
75%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 14 games
71%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Dy · 13 games
62%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 22 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 21 game
57%
Lion
Lion
Mira · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 17 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 16 games
44%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Larl · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
474 picks · 205 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
457 picks · 596 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 831 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
449 picks · 659 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
425 picks · 178 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
396 picks · 736 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 619 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
382 picks · 294 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 36%
Hero pool strength58% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total74% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:9
Xtreme Gaming 63%Team Spirit 37%
The model gave 63% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinXm
44% · 184 games47% · 172 games
LunaYatoro
Luna
Juggernaut
JuggernautAme
56% · 50 games46% · 63 games
ZeusLarl
Zeus
Primal Beast
Primal BeastXxs
58% · 206 games49% · 329 games
PangolierCollapse
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark WillowXinQ
53% · 120 games47% · 106 games
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeDy
52% · 175 games50% · 65 games
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 74%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1