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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Spiritloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 42 games
79%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 33 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 28 games
71%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 23 games
87%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 21 game
81%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 20 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 19 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 18 games
67%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 22 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 21 game
57%
Lion
Lion
Mira · 17 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 17 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 16 games
44%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Larl · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
474 picks · 205 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
456 picks · 596 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 830 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
448 picks · 659 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
424 picks · 178 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
396 picks · 733 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 618 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
382 picks · 295 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 37%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:21
Tundra Esports 57%Team Spirit 43%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaPure~
52% · 105 games48% · 146 games
LunaYatoro
Luna
Zeus
ZeusTopson
45% · 90 games44% · 152 games
Templar AssassinLarl
Templar Assassin
Brewmaster
BrewmasterTobi
57% · 138 games44% · 132 games
Dragon KnightCollapse
Dragon Knight
Rubick
Rubick9Class
43% · 293 games57% · 129 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Elder Titan
Elder TitanWhitemon
57% · 76 games54% · 143 games
ClockwerkMiposhka
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 61%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1