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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 41 game
78%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 33 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 28 games
71%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 23 games
87%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 21 game
81%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 20 games
75%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 18 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pure~ · 18 games
50%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 22 games
82%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 19 games
74%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 18 games
61%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
44%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 15 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 15 games
80%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Dy · 13 games
62%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
473 picks · 205 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 595 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 830 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
447 picks · 659 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
423 picks · 178 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
396 picks · 731 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 618 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
381 picks · 295 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total67% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:9
Tundra Esports 39%Xtreme Gaming 61%
The model gave 61% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 41:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
MeepoPure~
40% · 29 games59% · 41 game
SniperXm
Sniper
Morphling
MorphlingTopson
46% · 235 games53% · 65 games
Troll WarlordAme
Troll Warlord
Kunkka
KunkkaTobi
48% · 212 games49% · 231 game
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Chen
ChenWhitemon
52% · 90 games54% · 243 games
Shadow DemonXinQ
Shadow Demon
Techies
Techies9Class
48% · 264 games51% · 250 games
Crystal MaidenDy
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 67%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1