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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 31 game
58%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 25 games
60%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 23 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 22 games
64%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 20 games
55%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 20 games
55%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 18 games
50%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 22 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 21 game
57%
Lion
Lion
Mira · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 16 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 16 games
44%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Larl · 15 games
40%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
473 picks · 205 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
453 picks · 831 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 595 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 663 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
419 picks · 179 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
396 picks · 726 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
391 picks · 620 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
382 picks · 295 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total53% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:8
OG 48%Team Spirit 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by OG in 31:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
48% · 234 games55% · 95 games
Anti-MageYatoro
Anti-Mage
Timbersaw
Timbersawbzm
44% · 180 games46% · 226 games
PuckLarl
Puck
Slardar
SlardarWisper
61% · 51 game55% · 234 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCeb
53% · 222 games51% · 219 games
Vengeful SpiritMiposhka
Vengeful Spirit
Rubick
RubickAri
44% · 287 games48% · 200 games
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct31:34
OG 47%Team Spirit 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 47:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerTimado
53% · 108 games56% · 211 games
LunaYatoro
Luna
Kunkka
Kunkkabzm
53% · 194 games42% · 156 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawWisper
42% · 223 games52% · 196 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Phoenix
PhoenixCeb
45% · 164 games59% · 61 game
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Bane
BaneAri
50% · 55 games49% · 120 games
Dark WillowMira
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2