?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
7%93%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Talon Esports

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Akashi · 23 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
CHYuan · 19 games
63%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 18 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Jhocam · 15 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
CHYuan · 13 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Ponyo · 12 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Ws · 12 games
75%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Ponyo · 11 games
64%

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 42 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 37 games
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
77%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
82%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
62%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 25 games
76%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
472 picks · 204 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
451 picks · 832 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 593 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 663 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
419 picks · 178 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
393 picks · 723 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 619 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
381 picks · 293 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 61%
Hero pool strength57% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:39
Talon Esports 21%Team Falcons 79%
The model gave 79% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawWs
50% · 176 games47% · 40 games
ViperATF
Viper
Razor
RazorCHYuan
48% · 122 games57% · 154 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAkashi
46% · 144 games54% · 291 game
PangolierMalr1ne
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJhocam
50% · 87 games54% · 158 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPonyo
49% · 221 game42% · 107 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct27:42
Talon Esports 19%Team Falcons 81%
The model gave 81% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 40:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenAkashi
58% · 146 games46% · 90 games
WeaverSkiter
Weaver
Zeus
ZeusCHYuan
43% · 100 games52% · 175 games
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
Dragon Knight
Razor
RazorWs
51% · 129 games53% · 216 games
DoomATF
Doom
Tiny
TinyJhocam
54% · 253 games48% · 158 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Enchantress
EnchantressPonyo
45% · 217 games48% · 206 games
Shadow DemonSneyking
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 93%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2