ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Rubick
Mira · 22 games
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 22 games
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 21 game
Lion
Mira · 17 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 16 games
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 15 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 15 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Larl · 14 games
Tundra Esports
Techiessignature
9Class · 41 game
Rubicksignature
9Class · 30 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 27 games
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 22 games
Snipersignature
Topson · 20 games
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 19 games
Batridersignature
9Class · 18 games
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
471 picks · 204 bans
Batrider
450 picks · 830 bans
Tiny
448 picks · 593 bans
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 663 bans
Rubick
416 picks · 178 bans
Pangolier
391 picks · 719 bans
Mars
389 picks · 618 bans
Techies
380 picks · 293 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 51%
Hero pool strength61% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:19
Team Spirit 43%Tundra Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 39:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenYatoro
LunaPure~
LeshracLarl
PuckTopson
KunkkaCollapse
BrewmasterTobi
PhoenixMiposhka
Rubick9Class
Shadow DemonMira
Vengeful SpiritWhitemon
Game 2prediction missed31:16
Team Spirit 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 41:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageYatoro
MorphlingPure~
MarsCollapse
BrewmasterTobi
Storm SpiritLarl
TinyTopson
EnchantressMiposhka
Rubick9Class
Dark WillowMira
Elder TitanWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2