?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Heroicloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 40 games
80%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 30 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 27 games
74%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 22 games
86%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 19 games
84%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 18 games
67%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 18 games
78%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 16 games
75%

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 27 games
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
KJ · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 18 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 15 games
40%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 14 games
71%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 13 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 13 games
46%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Davai · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
470 picks · 203 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
449 picks · 828 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 594 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
441 picks · 661 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
415 picks · 178 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
391 picks · 713 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 617 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
379 picks · 293 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 48%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:40
Tundra Esports 53%Heroic 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Heroic in 1:01:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenPure~
54% · 158 games47% · 85 games
LifestealerK1
Lifestealer
Sniper
SniperTopson
45% · 28 games46% · 150 games
Keeper of the Light4nalog
Keeper of the Light
Visage
VisageTobi
50% · 32 games53% · 98 games
BrewmasterDavai
Brewmaster
Techies
TechiesWhitemon
47% · 235 games54% · 98 games
ClockwerkScofield
Clockwerk
Tusk
Tusk9Class
50% · 108 games51% · 130 games
GyrocopterKJ
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction correct31:39
Tundra Esports 54%Heroic 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 1:02:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperPure~
50% · 32 games48% · 91 game
SlarkK1
Slark
Puck
PuckTopson
54% · 181 game51% · 165 games
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
Centaur Warrunner
Abaddon
AbaddonTobi
42% · 31 game45% · 61 game
Zeus4nalog
Zeus
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon9Class
54% · 225 games47% · 141 game
EnchantressKJ
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkWhitemon
53% · 119 games47% · 130 games
GyrocopterScofield
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2