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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 25 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 20 games
70%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
dyrachyo · 19 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
tOfu · 17 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 15 games
80%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
46%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 31 game
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 24 games
58%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 23 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 22 games
64%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 19 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 18 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
470 picks · 203 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
449 picks · 828 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
447 picks · 594 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
441 picks · 661 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
415 picks · 178 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
391 picks · 713 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 617 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
379 picks · 293 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total50% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:22
Gaimin Gladiators 51%OG 49%
The model gave 51% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 38:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracQuinn
55% · 122 games51% · 173 games
Puckbzm
Puck
Axe
AxeAce
41% · 49 games52% · 208 games
Faceless VoidTimado
Faceless Void
Weaver
Weaverdyrachyo
52% · 130 games47% · 106 games
BrewmasterWisper
Brewmaster
Batrider
BatridertOfu
51% · 312 games52% · 100 games
MuertaAri
Muerta
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
44% · 206 games53% · 232 games
Crystal MaidenCeb
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct17:62
Gaimin Gladiators 49%OG 51%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 33:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
52% · 121 game45% · 221 game
MorphlingTimado
Morphling
Sniper
Sniperdyrachyo
58% · 35 games51% · 82 games
Earth Spiritbzm
Earth Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingQuinn
55% · 92 games46% · 186 games
MagnusWisper
Magnus
Tusk
TuskSeleri
52% · 120 games50% · 160 games
DisruptorAri
Disruptor
Rubick
RubicktOfu
44% · 315 games56% · 34 games
BaneCeb
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 50%
Accuracy by game2 of 2