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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
SabeRLight- · 17 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 14 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 14 games
79%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 12 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
70%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
70%

BETBOOM TEAM

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Save- · 19 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 19 games
74%
Mirana
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 18 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gpK~ · 17 games
65%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 16 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
Save- · 16 games
69%
Invoker
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
469 picks · 203 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 828 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
444 picks · 663 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 594 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
414 picks · 178 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
390 picks · 712 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
386 picks · 620 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
379 picks · 293 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 43%
Hero pool strength51% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total67% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:34
Shopify Rebellion 42%BETBOOM TEAM 58%
The model gave 58% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 38:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYopaj
49% · 189 games49% · 171 game
TerrorbladeNightfall
Terrorblade
Monkey King
Monkey KingArteezy
51% · 113 games56% · 29 games
SnipergpK~
Sniper
Razor
RazorSabeRLight-
46% · 157 games54% · 68 games
EnigmaMieRo
Enigma
Tiny
TinyThiolicor
49% · 230 games50% · 167 games
GyrocopterTORONTOTOKYO
Gyrocopter
50% · 254 games
RubickSave-
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct34:26
Shopify Rebellion 40%BETBOOM TEAM 60%
The model gave 60% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 59:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
47% · 207 games44% · 71 game
WeaverNightfall
Weaver
Monkey King
Monkey KingArteezy
56% · 81 game52% · 138 games
Dragon KnightgpK~
Dragon Knight
Pangolier
PangolierYopaj
49% · 234 games48% · 87 games
EnigmaMieRo
Enigma
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonThiolicor
51% · 206 games44% · 206 games
Crystal MaidenTORONTOTOKYO
Crystal Maiden
56% · 226 games
TinySave-
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 67%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2