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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
SabeRLight- · 17 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 14 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 14 games
79%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 13 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 12 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
70%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Arteezy · 10 games
70%

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 25 games
64%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 24 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 23 games
52%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 19 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 18 games
61%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 18 games
72%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
469 picks · 203 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 827 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
444 picks · 663 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 592 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 178 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
390 picks · 706 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 619 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
378 picks · 293 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total69% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:18
Shopify Rebellion 38%Team Liquid 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 35:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightArteezy
52% · 39 games45% · 117 games
LunamiCKe
Luna
Sniper
SniperYopaj
43% · 31 game63% · 79 games
LeshracNisha
Leshrac
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
47% · 90 games55% · 26 games
Slardar33
Slardar
Rubick
RubickThiolicor
49% · 178 games45% · 82 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
59% · 34 games
OracleiNSaNiA
Oracle
Game 2prediction correct20:34
Shopify Rebellion 38%Team Liquid 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 40:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusYopaj
46% · 74 games50% · 71 game
WeavermiCKe
Weaver
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerArteezy
45% · 115 games63% · 64 games
LeshracNisha
Leshrac
Brewmaster
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
48% · 125 games52% · 37 games
Venomancer33
Venomancer
Mirana
MiranaThiolicor
47% · 151 game47% · 179 games
RubickiNSaNiA
Rubick
56% · 114 games
TinyBoxi
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 69%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2