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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 23 games
61%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 20 games
70%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
dyrachyo · 19 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
tOfu · 17 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 16 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
tOfu · 14 games
79%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Seleri · 13 games
46%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 22 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lion
Mira · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 16 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 15 games
47%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Larl · 14 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 14 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
467 picks · 203 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
447 picks · 831 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 668 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 594 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 177 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
392 picks · 705 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 622 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
382 picks · 296 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total51% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:30
Gaimin Gladiators 50%Team Spirit 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 29:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusQuinn
47% · 52 games57% · 146 games
LeshracLarl
Leshrac
Monkey King
Monkey Kingdyrachyo
50% · 85 games51% · 190 games
WindrangerYatoro
Windranger
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
53% · 184 games46% · 249 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSeleri
50% · 182 games53% · 80 games
IoMira
Io
Tiny
TinytOfu
50% · 224 games39% · 62 games
BaneMiposhka
Bane
Game 2prediction correct36:21
Gaimin Gladiators 52%Team Spirit 48%
The model gave 52% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 41:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
57% · 38 games54% · 158 games
Keeper of the LightLarl
Keeper of the Light
Leshrac
LeshracQuinn
56% · 137 games46% · 223 games
Primal BeastCollapse
Primal Beast
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
43% · 116 games44% · 176 games
WindrangerYatoro
Windranger
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSeleri
50% · 238 games54% · 238 games
TinyMira
Tiny
Batrider
BatridertOfu
55% · 328 games43% · 62 games
BaneMiposhka
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 51%
Accuracy by game2 of 2