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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 31 game
58%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 24 games
58%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 23 games
61%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 22 games
64%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 19 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 18 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Ceb · 17 games
59%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 40 games
80%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 30 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 26 games
77%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 22 games
86%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 18 games
83%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 18 games
78%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 16 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 16 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
467 picks · 203 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
447 picks · 831 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 668 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
438 picks · 594 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 177 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
392 picks · 705 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 622 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
382 picks · 296 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 54%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total57% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:42
OG 46%Tundra Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 47:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
48% · 192 games47% · 146 games
SvenPure~
Sven
Puck
Puckbzm
54% · 167 games47% · 57 games
ZeusTopson
Zeus
Magnus
MagnusWisper
55% · 165 games51% · 110 games
BrewmasterTobi
Brewmaster
Enchantress
EnchantressCeb
46% · 149 games55% · 344 games
Batrider9Class
Batrider
Marci
MarciAri
43% · 39 games51% · 55 games
Elder TitanWhitemon
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed49:59
OG 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 1:10:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTimado
48% · 209 games60% · 50 games
ZeusTopson
Zeus
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWisper
42% · 144 games52% · 120 games
SvenPure~
Sven
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
52% · 149 games54% · 179 games
Centaur WarrunnerTobi
Centaur Warrunner
Marci
MarciAri
41% · 43 games61% · 176 games
Batrider9Class
Batrider
Bane
BaneCeb
32% · 75 games58% · 95 games
DisruptorWhitemon
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 57%
Accuracy by game1 of 2