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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Heroicloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 22 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 21 game
57%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lion
Mira · 17 games
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 16 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 15 games
47%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Larl · 14 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Collapse · 14 games
64%

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 26 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 18 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 14 games
71%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 14 games
43%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 13 games
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 13 games
46%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 203 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
446 picks · 830 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 666 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
435 picks · 593 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
411 picks · 176 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
390 picks · 702 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 621 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
381 picks · 296 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 48%
Hero pool strength51% Heroic
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:29
Team Spirit 45%Heroic 55%
The model gave 55% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 57:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYatoro
54% · 31 game49% · 185 games
TerrorbladeK1
Terrorblade
Razor
RazorLarl
46% · 129 games58% · 111 games
Leshrac4nalog
Leshrac
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
50% · 43 games55% · 84 games
EnigmaDavai
Enigma
Snapfire
SnapfireMiposhka
44% · 94 games45% · 77 games
TuskScofield
Tusk
Techies
TechiesMira
50% · 190 games54% · 30 games
BaneKJ
Bane
Game 2prediction missed24:14
Team Spirit 45%Heroic 55%
The model gave 55% on Heroic — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYatoro
46% · 189 games46% · 257 games
Timbersaw4nalog
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierLarl
49% · 245 games60% · 44 games
Chaos KnightK1
Chaos Knight
Enchantress
EnchantressMiposhka
47% · 164 games50% · 45 games
ViperDavai
Viper
Slardar
SlardarCollapse
48% · 48 games51% · 210 games
TinyScofield
Tiny
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
53% · 98 games52% · 188 games
GrimstrokeKJ
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2