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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 1:0
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 31 game
42%
Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 25 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 19 games
32%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 16 games
44%

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 29 games
62%
Techies
Techies
rue · 23 games
48%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 19 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 19 games
53%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 18 games
56%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 15 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
erase · 14 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
459 picks · 199 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
447 picks · 670 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
441 picks · 836 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
427 picks · 591 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
411 picks · 179 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 691 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
386 picks · 625 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
385 picks · 296 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Natus Vincere Junior 46%Yellow Submarine 54%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 54%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1