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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Ulnit · 19 games
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 18 games
72%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 17 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 16 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 16 games
63%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 13 games
46%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NARMAN · 12 games
58%

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 31 game
42%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Riddys · 23 games
48%
Lion
Lionsignature
Riddys · 23 games
61%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 20 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
29%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
455 picks · 199 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
447 picks · 672 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
440 picks · 838 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
423 picks · 590 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 179 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
387 picks · 680 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
386 picks · 625 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
385 picks · 297 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:35
MOUZ 60%Natus Vincere Junior 40%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 39:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckSupream^
55% · 173 games44% · 245 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterUlnit
56% · 174 games45% · 201 game
TimbersawNiku
Timbersaw
Kunkka
KunkkaForce
55% · 190 games50% · 210 games
Marspma
Mars
Dark Willow
Dark WillowNARMAN
51% · 120 games44% · 66 games
IoDaze
Io
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenbengan
51% · 245 games48% · 180 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Game 2prediction correct28:3
MOUZ 58%Natus Vincere Junior 42%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 22:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaUlnit
51% · 283 games41% · 140 games
Timbersawpma
Timbersaw
Axe
AxeForce
45% · 56 games49% · 159 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSupream^
60% · 167 games49% · 146 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Dark Willow
Dark WillowNARMAN
50% · 145 games55% · 88 games
GyrocopterDaze
Gyrocopter
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorbengan
43% · 21 game49% · 139 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Game 3prediction missed17:35
MOUZ 59%Natus Vincere Junior 41%
The model gave 59% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 39:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlnit
51% · 114 games55% · 91 game
Lifestealergotthejuice
Lifestealer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSupream^
50% · 167 games51% · 149 games
Marspma
Mars
Axe
AxeForce
46% · 34 games52% · 158 games
Keeper of the LightNiku
Keeper of the Light
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonbengan
54% · 189 games50% · 88 games
ChenRiddys
Chen
Dark Willow
Dark WillowNARMAN
42% · 98 games46% · 116 games
GyrocopterDaze
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 66%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3