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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ASAKURAloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 18 games
44%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 16 games
44%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 14 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 14 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 12 games
50%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 12 games
50%
Techies
Techies
OneJey · 12 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 11 games
36%

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
454 picks · 199 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
444 picks · 670 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
438 picks · 838 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
422 picks · 588 bans
57%
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 178 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 625 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
385 picks · 678 bans
52%
Techies
Techies
385 picks · 297 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 47%
Hero pool strength59% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:6
HULIGANI 59%ASAKURA 41%
The model gave 59% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 26:36.
Game 2prediction correct39:26
HULIGANI 59%ASAKURA 41%
The model gave 59% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 48:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 59%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2