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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:1
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Ulnit · 19 games
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 18 games
72%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 16 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 15 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 14 games
71%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 13 games
46%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NARMAN · 12 games
58%

B8 Esports

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
CTOMAHEH1 · 22 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
47%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Dendi · 16 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 14 games
43%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
46%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 13 games
46%
Chen
Chensignature
Mary_y · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
451 picks · 197 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
446 picks · 671 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
435 picks · 840 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
421 picks · 582 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
409 picks · 180 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 627 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
386 picks · 297 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
383 picks · 677 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 23%
Hero pool strength54% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:27
MOUZ 72%B8 Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on MOUZ — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 40:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzUlnit
43% · 64 games54% · 215 games
Medusarincyq
Medusa
Doom
DoomForce
50% · 321 game48% · 236 games
Beastmasteregxrdemxn
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierSupream^
53% · 319 games50% · 199 games
MagnusDendi
Magnus
Enchantress
EnchantressNARMAN
50% · 171 game54% · 192 games
Shadow DemonCTOMAHEH1
Shadow Demon
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorbengan
46% · 14 games46% · 47 games
BaneMary_y
Bane
Game 2prediction correct35:10
MOUZ 75%B8 Esports 25%
The model gave 75% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 38:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSupream^
45% · 176 games44% · 164 games
Lunarincyq
Luna
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightUlnit
61% · 36 games48% · 173 games
MagnusDendi
Magnus
Primal Beast
Primal BeastForce
47% · 200 games61% · 66 games
Enigmaegxrdemxn
Enigma
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidenbengan
51% · 253 games43% · 326 games
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Rubick
Dark Willow
Dark WillowNARMAN
56% · 111 games56% · 47 games
BaneMary_y
Bane
Game 3prediction correct37:9
MOUZ 70%B8 Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 27:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackUlnit
39% · 12 games50% · 4 games
Meeporincyq
Meepo
Axe
AxeForce
46% · 38 games46% · 49 games
Beastmasteregxrdemxn
Beastmaster
Razor
RazorSupream^
50% · 61 game50% · 64 games
MagnusDendi
Magnus
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctorbengan
50% · 10 games59% · 45 games
ChenMary_y
Chen
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterNARMAN
51% · 50 games46% · 9 games
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 86%
Series resultMOUZ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3