European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamwin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
JustBetterloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MarsBet Team
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 22 games
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 17 games
Marsoften banned
Mr. Luck · 15 games
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 14 games
Luna
Lukas · 14 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
LeBronDota · 13 games
Phoenixoften banned
LeBronDota · 12 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
JustBetter
Batridersignature
Astral · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 6 games
Luna
Focus · 6 games
Kunkkaoften banned
SkyLark · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
SsaSpartan · 4 games
Hoodwink
Astral · 4 games
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Astral · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
451 picks · 197 bans
Centaur Warrunner
448 picks · 671 bans
Batrider
436 picks · 843 bans
Tiny
423 picks · 585 bans
Rubick
411 picks · 179 bans
Mars
391 picks · 629 bans
Techies
388 picks · 298 bans
Pangolier
387 picks · 677 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% MarsBet Team
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:3
MarsBet Team 52%JustBetter 48%
The model gave 52% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 7:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Night StalkerStoneBank
ViperSkyLark
TimbersawW1sh-
BaneAstral
LunaRetsu
Dragon KnightThuG
GyrocopterBignum
MorphlingFocus
ClockwerkLeBronDota
GrimstrokeSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction correct
MarsBet Team 54%JustBetter 46%
The model gave 54% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 54%
Series resultMarsBet Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2