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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportswin 2:1
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MarsBet Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 20 games
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
47%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Dendi · 15 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 14 games
43%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
46%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 13 games
46%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
StoneBank · 12 games
67%

MarsBet Team

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Mr. Luck · 22 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 17 games
53%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Mr. Luck · 15 games
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Mitch · 14 games
43%
Luna
Luna
Lukas · 13 games
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
LeBronDota · 13 games
31%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Otaker · 11 games
36%
Lion
Lion
Bignum · 11 games
18%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
454 picks · 197 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
453 picks · 681 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
440 picks · 857 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
431 picks · 589 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
417 picks · 182 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
401 picks · 640 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
392 picks · 681 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
389 picks · 302 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)23% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% B8 Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total57% MarsBet Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:12
B8 Esports 47%MarsBet Team 53%
The model gave 53% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 31:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Meepo
Meeporincyq
43% · 18 games56% · 66 games
MedusaRetsu
Medusa
Lycan
Lycanegxrdemxn
56% · 42 games46% · 45 games
RazorStoneBank
Razor
Magnus
MagnusDendi
48% · 130 games49% · 25 games
Earth SpiritPanda
Earth Spirit
Chen
ChenMary_y
62% · 81 game44% · 88 games
PhoenixLeBronDota
Phoenix
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
44% · 22 games42% · 69 games
TuskBignum
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct13:16
B8 Esports 47%MarsBet Team 53%
The model gave 53% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 38:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinrincyq
48% · 181 game52% · 108 games
LunaRetsu
Luna
Lycan
Lycanegxrdemxn
54% · 67 games43% · 121 game
TimbersawPanda
Timbersaw
Kunkka
KunkkaDendi
54% · 179 games46% · 99 games
Dragon KnightStoneBank
Dragon Knight
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
52% · 47 games45% · 143 games
Shadow DemonBignum
Shadow Demon
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMary_y
60% · 91 game48% · 94 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed32:16
B8 Esports 44%MarsBet Team 56%
The model gave 56% on MarsBet Team — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 44:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunarincyq
53% · 186 games61% · 141 game
MedusaRetsu
Medusa
Beastmaster
Beastmasteregxrdemxn
50% · 295 games43% · 234 games
TimbersawStoneBank
Timbersaw
Windranger
WindrangerDendi
48% · 260 games44% · 201 game
Storm SpiritPanda
Storm Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCTOMAHEH1
51% · 247 games42% · 357 games
RubickBignum
Rubick
Bane
BaneMary_y
61% · 56 games52% · 111 games
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsBet Team · 57%
Series resultB8 Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3