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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
ASAKURAwin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%

B8 Esports

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 19 games
63%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 14 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Dendi · 14 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
46%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 13 games
46%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 13 games
69%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
StoneBank · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
468 picks · 705 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
456 picks · 198 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
448 picks · 876 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 593 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
422 picks · 186 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
413 picks · 659 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
403 picks · 705 bans
52%
Techies
Techies
403 picks · 314 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 23%
Hero pool strength55% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:38
ASAKURA 71%B8 Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 25:44.
Game 2prediction missed11:40
ASAKURA 71%B8 Esports 29%
The model gave 71% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 29:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 71%
Series resultASAKURA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2