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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Azure Rayloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 39 games
82%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 33 games
82%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 29 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 29 games
76%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
84%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 24 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 23 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
83%

Azure Ray

Tiny
Tinysignature
fy · 27 games
63%
Lion
Lion
fy · 26 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 24 games
63%
Luna
Luna
lou · 24 games
58%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 23 games
78%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Ori · 20 games
70%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Ori · 19 games
58%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 19 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
480 picks · 743 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
462 picks · 914 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
454 picks · 201 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 608 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
432 picks · 193 bans
50%
Techies
Techies
432 picks · 327 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
427 picks · 685 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
423 picks · 720 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 56%
Hero pool strength60% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total75% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:4
Team Falcons 63%Azure Ray 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 34:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSkiter
46% · 32 games60% · 79 games
Weaverlou
Weaver
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
42% · 49 games52% · 99 games
LeshracOri
Leshrac
Pangolier
PangolierATF
50% · 155 games54% · 47 games
SlardarFaith_bian
Slardar
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
45% · 143 games45% · 48 games
Clinkzfy
Clinkz
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCr1t-
40% · 41 game57% · 147 games
Disruptor天命
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct33:12
Team Falcons 66%Azure Ray 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
50% · 119 games46% · 209 games
Templar AssassinOri
Templar Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
48% · 226 games57% · 39 games
Marcilou
Marci
Mars
MarsATF
59% · 143 games53% · 346 games
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
41% · 99 games55% · 64 games
Banefy
Bane
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
47% · 142 games48% · 71 game
Io天命
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 75%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2