EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaters Arisewin 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NHNo Hoodwinkloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters Arise
Hoodwink
waveformn · 5 games
Marcioften banned
waveformn · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Ethereal · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 3 games
Centaur Warrunner
Ankou · 2 games
Clinkzoften banned
yowaai · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
Ankou · 2 games
Huskaroften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
No Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Katari_ · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 1 game
Lone Druidoften banned
rubikon155 · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
Infernal · 1 game
Mirana
asdekor_r · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
509 picks · 363 bans
Clockwerk
369 picks · 655 bans
Rubick
356 picks · 200 bans
Bane
330 picks · 373 bans
Tiny
324 picks · 348 bans
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 446 bans
Windranger
311 picks · 233 bans
Storm Spirit
298 picks · 333 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 67%
Hero pool strength54% No Hoodwink
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Rune Eaters Arise
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:38
Rune Eaters Arise 51%No Hoodwink 49%
The model gave 51% on Rune Eaters Arise — the game was taken by No Hoodwink in 30:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunayowaai
Lifestealerrubikon155
LycanAnkou
Invokerre1bl
Ember SpiritPanda
Enigmamangekyou
Enchantressani-san
Winter Wyvernasdekor_r
Marciwaveformn
LionKatari_
Game 2prediction correct17:7
Rune Eaters Arise 50%No Hoodwink 50%
The model gave 50% on Rune Eaters Arise — the game was taken by Rune Eaters Arise in 29:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinyowaai
Invokerre1bl
DawnbreakerAnkou
Windrangerrubikon155
Keeper of the LightEthereal
Centaur Warrunnermangekyou
Tuskwaveformn
Enchantressasdekor_r
Winter Wyvernani-san
Dark WillowKatari_
Game 3prediction correct29:19
Rune Eaters Arise 51%No Hoodwink 49%
The model gave 51% on Rune Eaters Arise — the game was taken by Rune Eaters Arise in 34:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinyyowaai
Nature's Prophetre1bl
ViperEthereal
Doomrubikon155
Dark SeerAnkou
Keeper of the Lightmangekyou
Miranaani-san
Earth SpiritKatari_
Tuskwaveformn
Winter Wyvernasdekor_r
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters Arise · 52%
Series resultRune Eaters Arise 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3