?
arrow_backBack to match
Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Azure Raywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 25 games
68%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 25 games
68%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 21 game
52%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
33 · 17 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 17 games
59%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 17 games
71%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 14 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Nisha · 14 games
71%

Azure Ray

Lion
Lion
fy · 25 games
56%
Luna
Lunasignature
lou · 25 games
60%
Tiny
Tinysignature
fy · 25 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 24 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 23 games
78%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Ori · 20 games
60%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 19 games
68%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Ori · 19 games
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
488 picks · 751 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
468 picks · 923 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
456 picks · 201 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
456 picks · 611 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
440 picks · 339 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
437 picks · 195 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
431 picks · 688 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
427 picks · 726 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Azure Ray
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total61% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:29
Team Liquid 56%Azure Ray 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 44:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNisha
53% · 179 games47% · 143 games
RazorOri
Razor
Luna
LunamiCKe
45% · 136 games45% · 176 games
Gyrocopterlou
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight33
46% · 160 games54% · 125 games
Dark SeerFaith_bian
Dark Seer
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
53% · 245 games56% · 256 games
Tinyfy
Tiny
Bane
BaneiNSaNiA
50% · 54 games54% · 74 games
Venomancer天命
Venomancer
Game 2prediction correct44:23
Team Liquid 55%Azure Ray 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 48:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracNisha
57% · 90 games46% · 85 games
Anti-Magelou
Anti-Mage
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
54% · 112 games45% · 44 games
ViperFaith_bian
Viper
Doom
Doom33
53% · 133 games40% · 79 games
ZeusOri
Zeus
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
52% · 147 games46% · 299 games
Tinyfy
Tiny
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
50% · 123 games55% · 98 games
Io天命
Io
Game 3prediction missed37:47
Team Liquid 52%Azure Ray 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 52:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusNisha
43% · 70 games51% · 169 games
Faceless Voidlou
Faceless Void
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
51% · 102 games42% · 14 games
SniperOri
Sniper
Pudge
PudgemiCKe
41% · 41 game51% · 156 games
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
Centaur Warrunner
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
51% · 120 games69% · 47 games
Elder Titan天命
Elder Titan
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
43% · 217 games53% · 164 games
Lionfy
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 61%
Series resultAzure Ray 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3