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Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 39 games
82%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 33 games
82%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 29 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 29 games
76%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 23 games
78%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 23 games
83%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%

Xtreme Gaming

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 16 games
88%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
44%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 15 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 14 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 13 games
69%
Mirana
Miranasignature
XinQ · 12 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 12 games
75%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Xm · 11 games
91%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
486 picks · 752 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
468 picks · 920 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
456 picks · 201 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 611 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
442 picks · 339 bans
49%
Rubick
Rubick
437 picks · 195 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
432 picks · 687 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
427 picks · 725 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 49%
Hero pool strength57% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total67% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:7
Team Falcons 62%Xtreme Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 32:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
49% · 72 games36% · 19 games
ClinkzAme
Clinkz
Razor
RazorMalr1ne
53% · 92 games48% · 162 games
PuckXm
Puck
Slardar
SlardarATF
71% · 26 games50% · 25 games
ViperXxs
Viper
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
41% · 71 game58% · 58 games
EarthshakerXinQ
Earthshaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSneyking
50% · 142 games47% · 139 games
PhoenixDy
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct36:26
Team Falcons 60%Xtreme Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 59:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkiter
70% · 38 games48% · 164 games
LunaAme
Luna
Timbersaw
TimbersawMalr1ne
41% · 190 games52% · 101 game
Death ProphetXm
Death Prophet
Razor
RazorATF
48% · 89 games49% · 227 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
54% · 123 games52% · 41 game
VenomancerDy
Venomancer
Tiny
TinyCr1t-
48% · 173 games48% · 80 games
Dark WillowXinQ
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 67%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2