Elite League · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Techiessignature
9Class · 39 games
Rubicksignature
9Class · 29 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 24 games
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 21 game
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 18 games
Batridersignature
9Class · 16 games
Snipersignature
Topson · 16 games
Tinysignature
9Class · 16 games
PSG Quest
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 24 games
Hoodwink
OmaR · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 17 games
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 15 games
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 14 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Dukalis · 14 games
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
Rubick
OmaR · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
484 picks · 753 bans
Batrider
468 picks · 917 bans
Crystal Maiden
457 picks · 202 bans
Tiny
453 picks · 610 bans
Techies
443 picks · 339 bans
Rubick
436 picks · 197 bans
Mars
433 picks · 687 bans
Pangolier
428 picks · 723 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 59%
Hero pool strength62% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total70% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:33
Tundra Esports 62%PSG Quest 38%
The model gave 62% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 56:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightTopson
LunaTA2000
Drow RangerPure~
TinyNo!ob
Centaur WarrunnerTobi
Dark SeerMalik
Disruptor9Class
RubickOmaR
TechiesWhitemon
Elder TitanDukalis
Game 2prediction missed13:22
Tundra Esports 63%PSG Quest 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 37:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaPure~
GyrocopterTA2000
Earth SpiritTopson
ZeusNo!ob
Centaur WarrunnerTobi
Dark SeerMalik
Rubick9Class
TinyOmaR
ClockwerkWhitemon
IoDukalis
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 70%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2