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Elite League · BO1
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 0:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Azure Raywin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Dukalis · 23 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 15 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 14 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dukalis · 14 games
64%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 14 games
57%

Azure Ray

Lion
Lion
fy · 25 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
fy · 25 games
64%
Luna
Luna
lou · 24 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
61%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 21 game
76%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Ori · 20 games
60%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 19 games
68%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Ori · 19 games
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 770 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
469 picks · 939 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
456 picks · 201 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 612 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
443 picks · 341 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
439 picks · 693 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
438 picks · 200 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
430 picks · 733 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% Azure Ray
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total62% Azure Ray
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:33
PSG Quest 42%Azure Ray 58%
The model gave 58% on Azure Ray — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 44:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTA2000
45% · 267 games59% · 150 games
Naga Sirenlou
Naga Siren
Pudge
PudgeMalik
42% · 55 games57% · 35 games
SniperOri
Sniper
Tiny
TinyNo!ob
46% · 233 games53% · 246 games
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonOmaR
46% · 229 games50% · 368 games
Techiesfy
Techies
Mirana
MiranaDukalis
49% · 217 games53% · 202 games
Disruptor天命
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteAzure Ray · 62%
Series resultAzure Ray 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1