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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
JustBetterwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

JustBetter

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SsaSpartan · 4 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Astral · 4 games
25%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SkyLark · 4 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 4 games
25%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
SsaSpartan · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 3 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
33%

B8 Esports

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 19 games
63%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 17 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
StoneBank · 13 games
46%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Lowskill · 13 games
46%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Dendi · 13 games
54%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Mary_y · 13 games
69%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
StoneBank · 12 games
42%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
StoneBank · 12 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
489 picks · 771 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
466 picks · 939 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
456 picks · 201 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 612 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
445 picks · 339 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
440 picks · 692 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
438 picks · 201 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
430 picks · 732 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 23%
Hero pool strength59% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% JustBetter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:22
JustBetter 52%B8 Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on JustBetter — the game was taken by JustBetter in 1:02:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorFocus
40% · 92 games52% · 143 games
Medusarincyq
Medusa
Lycan
LycanSkyLark
51% · 39 games54% · 130 games
KunkkaDendi
Kunkka
Leshrac
LeshracThuG
57% · 119 games55% · 103 games
Enigmaegxrdemxn
Enigma
Batrider
BatriderAstral
49% · 236 games49% · 61 game
BaneMary_y
Bane
Undying
UndyingSsaSpartan
43% · 129 games50% · 178 games
TinyCTOMAHEH1
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed12:34
JustBetter 52%B8 Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on JustBetter — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 31:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightFocus
52% · 123 games42% · 42 games
Anti-Magerincyq
Anti-Mage
Windranger
WindrangerThuG
53% · 117 games45% · 14 games
DazzleDendi
Dazzle
Broodmother
BroodmotherSkyLark
37% · 30 games37% · 21 game
Night Stalkeregxrdemxn
Night Stalker
Leshrac
LeshracAstral
62% · 72 games47% · 178 games
TinyCTOMAHEH1
Tiny
Oracle
OracleSsaSpartan
54% · 43 games55% · 130 games
DisruptorMary_y
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct30:38
JustBetter 52%B8 Esports 48%
The model gave 52% on JustBetter — the game was taken by JustBetter in 51:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordFocus
46% · 40 games56% · 44 games
Chaos Knightrincyq
Chaos Knight
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightThuG
46% · 131 game52% · 171 game
Keeper of the LightDendi
Keeper of the Light
Magnus
MagnusSkyLark
49% · 118 games49% · 271 game
Centaur Warrunneregxrdemxn
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderAstral
54% · 194 games50% · 59 games
BaneCTOMAHEH1
Bane
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSsaSpartan
44% · 122 games54% · 60 games
IoMary_y
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteJustBetter · 55%
Series resultJustBetter 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3