Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingloss 0:2series probability
18%82%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Xtreme Gaming
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
Marssignature
Xxs · 15 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 14 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 14 games
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 13 games
Miranasignature
XinQ · 12 games
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 12 games
Snipersignature
Xm · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
490 picks · 781 bans
Batrider
462 picks · 945 bans
Crystal Maiden
458 picks · 201 bans
Tiny
455 picks · 613 bans
Techies
449 picks · 338 bans
Mars
441 picks · 695 bans
Rubick
439 picks · 203 bans
Pangolier
426 picks · 734 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 47%
Hero pool strength61% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total82% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:9
Aurora Gaming 18%Xtreme Gaming 82%
The model gave 82% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 42:28.
Game 2prediction correct8:18
Aurora Gaming 18%Xtreme Gaming 82%
The model gave 82% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 82%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2