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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 22 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 17 games
47%
Techies
Techies
rue · 17 games
35%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 14 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 13 games
46%
Tusk
Tusk
aik · 13 games
46%

MOUZ

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Ulnit · 18 games
61%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 16 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 16 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 16 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 13 games
69%
Sven
Sven
Ulnit · 13 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 12 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NARMAN · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 786 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
462 picks · 953 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
457 picks · 202 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 611 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
452 picks · 345 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
444 picks · 699 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
440 picks · 203 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
429 picks · 734 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:50
Yellow Submarine 43%MOUZ 57%
The model gave 57% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 1:08:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
Leshracerase
55% · 134 games47% · 25 games
BristlebackUlnit
Bristleback
Medusa
MedusaSatanic
53% · 161 game48% · 261 game
DoomForce
Doom
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
50% · 207 games53% · 195 games
Primal BeastSupream^
Primal Beast
Chen
Chenasdekor_r
49% · 114 games44% · 41 game
Bounty HunterNARMAN
Bounty Hunter
Dark Willow
Dark Willowrue
50% · 102 games49% · 196 games
Crystal Maidenbengan
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed26:14
Yellow Submarine 42%MOUZ 58%
The model gave 58% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 31:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSatanic
44% · 108 games50% · 120 games
Death ProphetSupream^
Death Prophet
Timbersaw
Timbersawerase
45% · 143 games54% · 190 games
GyrocopterUlnit
Gyrocopter
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneremptiness
46% · 124 games52% · 140 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Batrider
Batriderrue
57% · 147 games44% · 68 games
Banebengan
Bane
Chen
Chenasdekor_r
50% · 58 games56% · 62 games
Bounty HunterNARMAN
Bounty Hunter
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 65%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2