?
arrow_backBack to match
Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 1:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Gaimin Gladiators

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 24 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
dyrachyo · 19 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 19 games
63%
Muerta
Muerta
tOfu · 19 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
tOfu · 17 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 14 games
57%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Seleri · 14 games
43%

Tundra Esports

Techies
Techiessignature
9Class · 37 games
84%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
9Class · 29 games
76%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Tobi · 24 games
83%
Luna
Lunasignature
Pure~ · 21 game
86%
Batrider
Batridersignature
9Class · 16 games
69%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Tobi · 16 games
88%
Sniper
Snipersignature
Topson · 16 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
9Class · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 793 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
466 picks · 957 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
459 picks · 203 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
456 picks · 612 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
450 picks · 345 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
444 picks · 701 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
443 picks · 203 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
431 picks · 736 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)34% vs 61%
Hero pool strength60% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total62% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:33
Gaimin Gladiators 44%Tundra Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 46:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperQuinn
57% · 29 games48% · 159 games
MorphlingPure~
Morphling
Weaver
Weaverdyrachyo
55% · 89 games44% · 43 games
ZeusTopson
Zeus
Axe
AxeAce
40% · 46 games50% · 86 games
BrewmasterTobi
Brewmaster
Phoenix
PhoenixSeleri
48% · 158 games46% · 149 games
Techies9Class
Techies
Clockwerk
ClockwerktOfu
55% · 160 games58% · 45 games
Elder TitanWhitemon
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed36:9
Gaimin Gladiators 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 24:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightdyrachyo
52% · 17 games39% · 24 games
Shadow FiendPure~
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainQuinn
50% · 68 games44% · 57 games
ZeusTopson
Zeus
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
55% · 134 games50% · 110 games
BrewmasterTobi
Brewmaster
Rubick
RubicktOfu
56% · 289 games49% · 312 games
TechiesWhitemon
Techies
Io
IoSeleri
54% · 41 game43% · 46 games
Marci9Class
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2