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Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
44%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 15 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 14 games
86%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
XinQ · 12 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 12 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 11 games
73%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 10 games
90%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
492 picks · 790 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
465 picks · 952 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
458 picks · 202 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
456 picks · 610 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
448 picks · 345 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
444 picks · 701 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
442 picks · 204 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
430 picks · 732 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 61%
Hero pool strength61% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:14
Xtreme Gaming 85%Blacklist International 15%
The model gave 85% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 36:37.
Game 2prediction correct42:22
Xtreme Gaming 85%Blacklist International 15%
The model gave 85% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 40:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 85%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2