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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
JustBetterloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
ASAKURAwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

JustBetter

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SsaSpartan · 4 games
25%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 4 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 3 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Astral · 3 games
33%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SkyLark · 3 games
67%
Luna
Luna
Focus · 3 games
0%

ASAKURA

Pugna
Pugnasignature
Hduo · 18 games
72%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 18 games
72%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
laise · 17 games
59%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Hduo · 16 games
81%
Techies
Techiessignature
Lil · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Kami · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
495 picks · 793 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
466 picks · 956 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
458 picks · 201 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
456 picks · 611 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
451 picks · 347 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
445 picks · 703 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
443 picks · 204 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
432 picks · 733 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 40%
Hero pool strength65% ASAKURA
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% ASAKURA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:24
JustBetter 41%ASAKURA 59%
The model gave 59% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 24:23.
Game 2prediction correct27:56
JustBetter 41%ASAKURA 59%
The model gave 59% on ASAKURA — the game was taken by ASAKURA in 38:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteASAKURA · 59%
Series resultASAKURA 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2