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Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:0
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Kaori · 21 game
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 15 games
53%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 15 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 14 games
43%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dukalis · 14 games
64%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 14 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 14 games
57%

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 20 games
60%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
78%
Lion
Lion
Mira · 17 games
59%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Larl · 16 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 15 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 14 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 792 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
465 picks · 956 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
457 picks · 201 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
456 picks · 608 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
451 picks · 347 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
445 picks · 703 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
443 picks · 204 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
430 picks · 731 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total65% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:12
PSG Quest 41%Team Spirit 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 48:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageTA2000
53% · 47 games53% · 173 games
Faceless VoidYatoro
Faceless Void
Enigma
EnigmaMalik
57% · 74 games54% · 173 games
PuckLarl
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
53% · 288 games47% · 115 games
RazorCollapse
Razor
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
48% · 172 games52% · 144 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterOmaR
40% · 177 games46% · 153 games
GrimstrokeMiposhka
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed41:17
PSG Quest 42%Team Spirit 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 40:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerTA2000
48% · 112 games50% · 301 game
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Puck
PuckNo!ob
51% · 176 games55% · 71 game
ClinkzYatoro
Clinkz
Pangolier
PangolierMalik
55% · 240 games44% · 93 games
DawnbreakerCollapse
Dawnbreaker
Enchantress
EnchantressDukalis
52% · 208 games51% · 191 game
TuskMira
Tusk
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterOmaR
47% · 111 games48% · 191 game
GrimstrokeMiposhka
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 65%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2