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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Monteloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 31 game
42%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Riddys · 22 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 18 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
29%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
69%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
60%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 15 games
47%

Monte

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
QBFY · 7 games
29%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 7 games
29%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Moonlight · 7 games
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 7 games
43%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Infernal · 6 games
33%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
EcNart · 6 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
QBFY · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
494 picks · 793 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
464 picks · 956 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
455 picks · 201 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 607 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
452 picks · 347 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
445 picks · 705 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
442 picks · 204 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
428 picks · 728 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 29%
Hero pool strength50% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total81% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:14
Natus Vincere Junior 68%Monte 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 30:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancergotthejuice
57% · 39 games47% · 81 game
LinaMoonlight
Lina
Pangolier
PangolierNiku
49% · 234 games53% · 182 games
GyrocopterCrystallize
Gyrocopter
Primal Beast
Primal Beastpma
58% · 168 games46% · 31 game
Night StalkerInfernal
Night Stalker
Batrider
BatriderDaze
56% · 209 games44% · 192 games
UndyingEcNart
Undying
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritRiddys
44% · 142 games49% · 306 games
Shadow DemonQBFY
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct40:11
Natus Vincere Junior 68%Monte 32%
The model gave 68% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 32:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusagotthejuice
50% · 208 games42% · 67 games
ZeusMoonlight
Zeus
Timbersaw
TimbersawNiku
47% · 244 games48% · 258 games
MorphlingCrystallize
Morphling
Windranger
Windrangerpma
58% · 169 games48% · 341 game
DoomInfernal
Doom
Pugna
PugnaRiddys
56% · 209 games47% · 232 games
Crystal MaidenEcNart
Crystal Maiden
Lion
LionDaze
48% · 184 games55% · 116 games
Dark WillowQBFY
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 81%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2