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Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
13%87%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Falconsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 31 game
58%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 23 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 22 games
55%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ari · 19 games
63%
Io
Iooften banned
Ceb · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 19 games
58%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Ceb · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 16 games
50%

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 38 games
84%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 31 game
84%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 28 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 28 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
83%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 23 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 22 games
77%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
496 picks · 793 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
465 picks · 961 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
454 picks · 201 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 605 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
452 picks · 347 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
445 picks · 707 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
441 picks · 204 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
428 picks · 732 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 71%
Hero pool strength63% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total87% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:13
OG 25%Team Falcons 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by OG in 31:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTimado
50% · 189 games58% · 99 games
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Puck
Puckbzm
51% · 173 games46% · 392 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Doom
DoomWisper
47% · 296 games50% · 269 games
MarsATF
Mars
Batrider
BatriderCeb
51% · 335 games51% · 272 games
WindrangerCr1t-
Windranger
Rubick
RubickAri
42% · 415 games54% · 376 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction missed42:14
OG 27%Team Falcons 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by OG in 36:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterTimado
50% · 104 games53% · 93 games
AlchemistSkiter
Alchemist
Puck
Puckbzm
55% · 132 games43% · 145 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWisper
52% · 57 games45% · 26 games
ViperATF
Viper
Disruptor
DisruptorCeb
54% · 161 game51% · 170 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Marci
MarciAri
53% · 48 games43% · 68 games
Earth SpiritCr1t-
Earth Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 87%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2