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European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
Dandelionsloss 0:2
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Dandelions

No games played over 6 months.

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 31 game
42%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Riddys · 22 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pma · 21 game
38%
Lion
Lion
Riddys · 18 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
gotthejuice · 17 games
29%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
69%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
60%
Pugna
Pugna
Riddys · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
496 picks · 786 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
461 picks · 961 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
455 picks · 601 bans
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
453 picks · 200 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
450 picks · 349 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
447 picks · 708 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
438 picks · 204 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
426 picks · 725 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 51%
Hero pool strength52% Dandelions
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Dandelions 31%Natus Vincere Junior 69%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior.
Game 2prediction correct
Dandelions 31%Natus Vincere Junior 69%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 69%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2