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Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
Azure Rayloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Azure Ray

Luna
Luna
lou · 24 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Faith_bian · 23 games
61%
Lion
Lion
fy · 21 game
57%
Techies
Techiessignature
天命 · 21 game
76%
Tiny
Tinysignature
fy · 21 game
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Ori · 20 games
60%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
天命 · 19 games
68%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Ori · 18 games
78%

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 37 games
84%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 31 game
84%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 27 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 27 games
74%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 23 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 22 games
77%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
82%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
501 picks · 785 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
459 picks · 973 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
455 picks · 198 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
453 picks · 352 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 603 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
448 picks · 713 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
441 picks · 203 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
426 picks · 725 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 70%
Hero pool strength60% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total80% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:21
Azure Ray 34%Team Falcons 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 43:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
Weaverlou
59% · 64 games52% · 100 games
GyrocopterSkiter
Gyrocopter
Death Prophet
Death ProphetOri
50% · 108 games45% · 192 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Chen
Chen天命
50% · 69 games41% · 21 game
SniperMalr1ne
Sniper
Magnus
MagnusFaith_bian
49% · 149 games51% · 113 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Lion
Lionfy
47% · 226 games51% · 190 games
TinyCr1t-
Tiny
Game 2prediction correct10:22
Azure Ray 30%Team Falcons 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 29:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterlou
47% · 190 games56% · 179 games
Dragon KnightSkiter
Dragon Knight
Zeus
ZeusOri
49% · 97 games48% · 223 games
TimbersawMalr1ne
Timbersaw
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerFaith_bian
46% · 161 game44% · 195 games
MarsATF
Mars
Enchantress
Enchantress天命
47% · 290 games58% · 241 game
BatriderCr1t-
Batrider
Tiny
Tinyfy
53% · 287 games54% · 187 games
Shadow DemonSneyking
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 80%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2