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Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gaimin Gladiatorsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 24 games
71%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
68%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 19 games
47%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
33 · 15 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 15 games
60%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 14 games
64%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 13 games
54%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 12 games
50%

Gaimin Gladiators

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 23 games
65%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
dyrachyo · 19 games
63%
Muerta
Muerta
tOfu · 19 games
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 18 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
tOfu · 16 games
56%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ace · 14 games
57%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 14 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Seleri · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
501 picks · 784 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
458 picks · 970 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
455 picks · 198 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
453 picks · 601 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
451 picks · 351 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
447 picks · 714 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
438 picks · 203 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
424 picks · 722 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head5 – 7
Model total55% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:8
Team Liquid 54%Gaimin Gladiators 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 27:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeavermiCKe
54% · 53 games40% · 23 games
Bristlebackdyrachyo
Bristleback
Puck
PuckNisha
51% · 114 games48% · 94 games
RazorQuinn
Razor
Brewmaster
Brewmaster33
54% · 108 games43% · 61 game
BloodseekerAce
Bloodseeker
Io
IoBoxi
53% · 43 games52% · 29 games
MarcitOfu
Marci
Bane
BaneiNSaNiA
60% · 20 games48% · 131 game
Vengeful SpiritSeleri
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct34:25
Team Liquid 51%Gaimin Gladiators 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 37:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinmiCKe
55% · 126 games47% · 242 games
Terrorbladedyrachyo
Terrorblade
Leshrac
LeshracNisha
51% · 120 games43% · 134 games
RazorQuinn
Razor
Kunkka
Kunkka33
54% · 155 games44% · 48 games
AxeAce
Axe
Rubick
RubickBoxi
45% · 293 games55% · 94 games
WeavertOfu
Weaver
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
50% · 112 games56% · 288 games
Crystal MaidenSeleri
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 55%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2