EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rune Eaters Ariseloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Hoodwink
queezy · 13 games
Windranger
queezy · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 11 games
Techiessignature
Htrd · 11 games
Void Spirit
Ainkrad · 9 games
Undyingsignature
Htrd · 8 games
Spectreoften banned
WoE · 7 games
Witch Doctorsignature
Htrd · 7 games
Rune Eaters Arise
Hoodwink
waveformn · 4 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 3 games
Centaur Warrunner
Ankou · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
Ankou · 2 games
Huskaroften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
Marcioften banned
waveformn · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
yowaai · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Ethereal · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
510 picks · 363 bans
Clockwerk
371 picks · 655 bans
Rubick
357 picks · 200 bans
Bane
331 picks · 371 bans
Tiny
325 picks · 349 bans
Ember Spirit
313 picks · 448 bans
Windranger
312 picks · 233 bans
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 334 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Rune Eaters Arise
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:13
Level UP 65%Rune Eaters Arise 35%
The model gave 65% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 37:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingWoE
Terrorbladeyowaai
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Storm SpiritNyx
TidehunterBb3px
LargoAnkou
Witch DoctorHtrd
Miranawaveformn
Hoodwinkqueezy
Enchantressani-san
Game 2prediction correct47:35
Level UP 63%Rune Eaters Arise 37%
The model gave 63% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 1:02:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone DruidWoE
UnderlordAnkou
Void SpiritAinkrad
Clinkzyowaai
TidehunterBb3px
PuckNyx
Dark Willowqueezy
Hoodwinkani-san
TechiesHtrd
Marciwaveformn
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 75%
Series resultLevel UP 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2