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Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
Heroicloss 1:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Falconsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
KJ · 24 games
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Scofield · 18 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
4nalog · 17 games
65%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
K1 · 13 games
69%
Lion
Lion
Scofield · 13 games
54%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Davai · 12 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
KJ · 12 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Scofield · 12 games
42%

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 37 games
84%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 31 game
84%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 27 games
74%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
65%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
82%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 22 games
82%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
500 picks · 784 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
459 picks · 969 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
455 picks · 196 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
453 picks · 351 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 601 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
449 picks · 717 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
438 picks · 204 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
424 picks · 717 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 71%
Hero pool strength64% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:27
Heroic 41%Team Falcons 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 42:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerK1
49% · 167 games58% · 67 games
WeaverSkiter
Weaver
Zeus
Zeus4nalog
41% · 76 games56% · 269 games
DoomATF
Doom
Timbersaw
TimbersawDavai
47% · 318 games54% · 159 games
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
Dragon Knight
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
49% · 147 games49% · 364 games
RubickCr1t-
Rubick
Enchantress
EnchantressKJ
45% · 322 games53% · 171 game
DisruptorSneyking
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed31:18
Heroic 43%Team Falcons 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Heroic in 55:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingK1
68% · 74 games47% · 324 games
DoomATF
Doom
Timbersaw
TimbersawDavai
46% · 312 games55% · 103 games
LeshracMalr1ne
Leshrac
Pangolier
Pangolier4nalog
47% · 349 games57% · 76 games
WeaverSkiter
Weaver
Enchantress
EnchantressKJ
44% · 302 games37% · 447 games
RubickCr1t-
Rubick
Earthshaker
EarthshakerScofield
62% · 103 games48% · 190 games
ClockwerkSneyking
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 62%
Accuracy by game1 of 2